U.S. vs them

Geopolitical Flashpoints: How Climate Change is Redefining Global Tensions

Dear sublime reader,

On 8th March this year, the United States released its annual threats assessment for 2023.

While much of the focus is on the usual adversaries— Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—there are a few interesting items that deserve attention. 

One of the most significant is the threat posed by climate change, which receives more coverage than even nuclear proliferation.

Last year's Annual Threat Assessment on the topic focused on ecological degradation and its potential to fuel disease outbreaks while threatening food and water security. This year, the assessment takes a slightly different view, opting to concentrate on four primary flashpoints.

Firstly, as nations endeavour to fulfil the objectives of the Paris Agreement, they will likely argue over how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• This could lead to an increase in geopolitical tensions.

• The debate will focus on who should take more action and pay for the clean energy transition and how quickly this should happen.

• Countries will also compete for control of resources and new technologies required for this transition.

Secondly, there is the risk of conflict arising from countries stepping on each other's toes as they compete for essential resources such as water, arable land, and the Arctic.

Thirdly, there are tensions over climate financing—centred on the unfulfilled pledge of $100 billion per year to low-income countries.

Finally, the extent of human displacement caused by climate change. Coupled with shrinking global trade as the frequency of climate-related disasters continues to increase.

The annual threats assessment is always an engaging read for big-picture insights, providing a peek into what keeps NSID officials up at night.

It seems we’re moving into an era where climate considerations creep into the geopolitical landscape.